Twisted Fate vs LeBlanc Mid Matchup
Twisted Fate Mid wins 51.9% of 1,702 Low Elo games against LeBlanc Mid, +1.5 points vs expected, 2-patch window 26.19-26.20.
Researched on LoL patch 26.20. Tips are written to hold at any rank; stats come from Low Elo ranked games up to patch 26.20.
Why Twisted Fate is favored
Twisted Fate can hold Pick a Card (Twisted Fate W) for LeBlanc's committed Distortion (LeBlanc W), then stun her for team follow-up; Destiny (Twisted Fate R) also gives him a way to answer side-lane moves. That reliable follow-up is a plausible source of his high-elo edge, even though the matchup is not a clear advantage in low elo.
Measured in High Elo: Twisted Fate wins 2.0pp more often than expected over 1,047 games.
How to play as Twisted Fate
Keep a Gold Card ready with Pick a Card (Twisted Fate W) while LeBlanc still has Distortion (LeBlanc W); use it when she lands on you or spends her return, and let teammates follow up.
Pick a Card (Twisted Fate W) can hold a Gold Card to stun LeBlanc after she commits Distortion (LeBlanc W), creating a punish window for nearby teammates.
Destiny (Twisted Fate R) reveals enemy champions and enables a teleport, so Twisted Fate can respond to the side-lane roams LeBlanc uses when a direct kill is unavailable.
How to play as LeBlanc
Avoid Distortion (LeBlanc W) onto Twisted Fate when he is holding a Gold Card; trade with Sigil of Malice (LeBlanc Q) and Ethereal Chains (LeBlanc E) from range, and use the wave to move when Destiny (Twisted Fate R) is committed elsewhere.
Sources
These notes come from r/TwistedFateMains and r/LeBlancMains, checked against the champions' abilities.